IN THE GULF: A surface trough extending from the Florida panhandle west-southwest along the northern Gulf Coast continues to produce showers and scattered thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent land areas. The surface trough is expected to drift north over the next few days and significant development is unlikely due to the system’s proximity to land. Regardless of development, heavy rains will pose a risk of flash flooding along
parts of the northern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle over the next few days. Chance of formation over 5 days… low… 10%. The feature seems to be moving ashore before it’s really curated, so we don’t expect it to expand, but if it did, it would be Danielle.

If you have a trip planned to the Central Gulf Coast (Dauphin Island to Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach), it won’t rain all day every day, but it will be wet and stormy at times, with a few intervals of sunshine. Also, rip currents are high at this time, please pay attention to flag warning systems along the beaches.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY: We have a front approaching from the north and a tropical system south of us, which puts most of Alabama in a “tropical sandwich” with more clouds than sun and heavy chance of rain. Humidity levels are very high, so expect limited sunshine with occasional showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures are expected to remain in the upper 80s for most locations. The central and southern regions are expected to see widespread rain and storms over the next few days and some locations may receive several inches of rain and may also face heavy storms. The SPC has defined a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) for parts of central Alabama today, as a few storms could produce high winds.

The model is not expected to change much in the next few days, but the forecast is subject to big changes due to the tropical system along the Gulf Coast. Hopefully by the end of Friday this feature should move east of us allowing some drier air to creep into the state from the north.

WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK: Fairly routine summer weather with partly sunny days, clear nights and a few showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Afternoon highs aren’t too far off 90 degrees, as the heart of the heat across the country remains west of Alabama. This typical mid-July weather pattern is also expected to continue into next week. We might see the upper summit starting to sting here, which means slightly higher heat levels with highs in the 90-95 degree range most days. And, the usual risk of showers and scattered thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening, daily.

Be blessed and highly favored!!!
Ryan